Improving dike reliability estimates by incorporating construction survival

During construction of a dike, slope stability often reaches critical levels, due to the excess pore water pressures in foundation. The loading condition during has similarities with design conditions flood loading. Not only terms as main driving force, but also criticality stability. This paper examines how information survival stage can be used improve reliability estimate for dike conditions, using Bayesian updating. approach is exemplified range typical dikes and case study full-scale test embankment. result that increase significantly by including uncertainty reduction involved, especially on soft soil blankets. For investigated cases, posterior failure probability was up several orders magnitude lower than prior probability. factors influencing degree update, were ground construction. In conclusion, survived leads improved reliability-based safety assessments dikes, consequently more targeted cost-effective protection.